Ukraine Finance on October 27: UAH 45.54 per Dollar, a $1.5 Billion Budget Shortfall and a Collapse in Metal Exports

This digest covers October 24 to October 27, 2026. The thread running through it is foreign-currency income: strikes on plants, ports and the energy system are cutting exports and budget revenue, and two days before the NBU's rate decision the hryvnia hit a record low for the second day running.

The Hryvnia Sets a Second Record in a Row: UAH 45.54 per Dollar

On October 26, the NBU set the official rate for October 27 at UAH 45.5382 per dollar, almost 34 kopecks weaker on the day and 7.5% weaker than at the start of the year. It is the second record in a row: we cited the previous one, UAH 45.2021, in our October 24 digest. The euro rose by almost 38 kopecks to UAH 50.9527. On the interbank market at 15:00 on October 26 the dollar traded at UAH 45.67–45.69, and the NBU's reference rate reached a record UAH 45.4727, Interfax-Ukraine reported. On October 27, according to UNIAN, the interbank rate eased slightly to UAH 45.51–45.55.

In the week of October 19–23, the NBU sold $1.193 billion on the interbank market, 4.6% less than a week earlier. Companies' net foreign-currency deficit edged up to an average of $175.8 million a day, while households' fell to $40.6 million.

The mechanism: the National Bank sells currency from its reserves to smooth swings, but it does not hold the rate at one level. When exports shrink while demand for currency stays, the hryvnia keeps weakening even with weekly sales above $1 billion. A weaker hryvnia makes imports dearer and feeds inflation, which is one more argument for tighter policy on October 29. For anyone holding foreign-currency savings, their hryvnia value rises; for anyone with foreign-currency debt, so does the debt.

Sources: Interfax-Ukraine: the rate for October 27, UNIAN: the interbank rate on October 27, Interfax-Ukraine: NBU interventions.

The Government Expects a $1.5 Billion Budget Shortfall and Proposes a War-Risk Insurance Fund

On October 26, at the 12th Kyiv International Economic Forum, Prime Minister Serhiy Koretskyi said his baseline forecast is that the 2026 state budget will fall about $1.5 billion short of plan because of the damage from strikes. According to him, strikes have already caused more than $7.7 billion in losses, and more than 1 million square metres of property has been damaged or destroyed.

Koretskyi proposed a special budget fund to insure against and compensate war risks: a starting state contribution of $1 billion to be matched by partners, a "symbolic" premium of about 2%, and compensation of up to about $5 million per recipient within 30 days of a claim being processed. At the same time, he said raising VAT from 20% to 21% to fund such a scheme has neither a consensus among businesses nor support in parliament yet. The "Affordable Loans 5-7-9%" programme, which has issued UAH 580 billion since its launch, was allocated UAH 18 billion for 2026, and spending could reach UAH 22 billion.

Why it matters: lower revenue means more borrowing, including through domestic government bonds (OVDP), on top of the funding gap already known for 2027. War-risk insurance is one of the main conditions without which businesses will not invest in production, and a possible VAT rise would affect prices and consumer-facing companies.

Sources: Interfax-Ukraine: Koretskyi's speech, Interfax-Ukraine: Koretskyi on the budget.

Exporters Under Fire: Metals Down 80%, Kernel's Grain Exports Down 54%

In September, Ukraine's metals output fell 80% after attacks hit seven blast furnaces, five at Metinvest and two at ArcelorMittal, according to the Center for Economic Strategy. Last year metallurgy and related industries accounted for more than 5% of GDP, and Dragon Capital's October forecast puts the loss from halted steel production and lower ore mining at 1.5% of GDP. What is new compared with the Worldsteel data we cited last week is the risk to the EU market: Metinvest executive Oleksandr Vodovizov noted that since July the EU has applied a quota of 670,000 tonnes a year, against previous shipments of about 2 million tonnes, and fears the European Commission will base new quotas for the next 5–10 years on precisely the months when the plants stand idle.

On October 26, the agricultural group Kernel reported for July–September, the first quarter of its 2027 financial year. Oil sales fell 48% year on year to 165,000 tonnes, grain exports fell 54% to 574,000 tonnes, and throughput at the group's terminals fell 59% to 742,000 tonnes. The company suspended its Chornomorsk terminal after attacks in July. Back on October 22, the government gave vegetable oil and fuel temporary priority on the railways, at ports and at the border, because a tonne of oil brings in far more foreign currency than a tonne of grain.

The mechanism: metals and farm goods are the main sources of export earnings. The less of them leaves the country, the less currency is sold on the market, so the NBU has to cover the shortfall from reserves. For investors in the bonds and shares of Ukrainian exporters, including Warsaw-listed Kernel, it is a direct hit to revenue.

Sources: Ekonomichna Pravda: the Center for Economic Strategy study, Interfax-Ukraine: Metinvest on EU quotas, Forbes Ukraine: Kernel's results, Ekonomichna Pravda: priority for oil.

Pyshnyi: Frozen Russian Assets for the 2027 Gap and the Capital-Market Reform

In an interview with Interfax-Ukraine published on October 26, NBU Governor Andriy Pyshnyi said the IMF is considering using immobilised Russian assets "in the way European partners decide is acceptable for them" to cover the 2027 financing gap. Prime Minister Serhiy Koretskyi has put that gap at $32.6 billion, and the IMF has verified it. According to the agency, the 2027 draft budget assumes $52.6 billion of external financing, of which only about $20 billion is confirmed.

Pyshnyi also said the position of the head of the securities regulator, the NSSMC, is holding up the reform of Ukraine's capital-market infrastructure. The model, developed by the NBU, the Ministry of Economy and the EBRD, would combine the whole chain of capital-market infrastructure in one holding with a foreign strategic investor chosen by competition; as examples of that calibre he named Deutsche Börse, Euroclear and Clearstream. The government's bill was submitted to parliament on September 4, and an alternative bill, No. 16038-1, was registered on September 21.

Why it matters: whether the EU agrees to use the assets decides whether 2027 can be funded without excessive domestic borrowing. And a reliable infrastructure with a well-known international partner is a condition without which foreign investors are unlikely to come to Ukrainian securities in numbers.

Sources: Interfax-Ukraine: Pyshnyi on Russian assets, Interfax-Ukraine: Pyshnyi on the capital market.

Banks: There Is Money, but Not Enough Capital

Speaking at the same forum on October 26, PUMB CEO Serhiy Chernenko said more than 800 client investment deals went through the bank in the first seven months of 2026, against about 500 in all of 2025, but since August clients have halted almost every deal that was at its final stage. The constraint on lending, he said, is not liquidity but capital: "There is money. What's lacking? Capital." He expects the higher 50% profit tax on banks may stay next year, and "this eats up capital."

The same day, Pyshnyi said in his interview that the October 19–20 strikes on data centres barely affected the banking system but provided information for improving business-continuity protocols; if attacks intensify, he did not rule out temporary restrictions on some functions.

The mechanism: a bank's own capital is the buffer that absorbs possible loan losses, and it is what limits how much the bank can lend. A high profit tax shrinks capital, so even with deposits available, business lending grows more slowly, and frozen investment means weaker economic growth.

Sources: Interfax-Ukraine: Chernenko on investment, Ekonomichna Pravda: banks after the data-centre strikes.

What to Watch Next

• Around October 28: first reading of the 2027 draft budget in the Rada.
• October 29: NBU policy-rate decision (currently 16%) and updated macro forecast.
• November: an IMF mission for the next review of the EFF programme; Ukraine expects about $1.66 billion from the Fund by the end of 2026.

Sources: Interfax-Ukraine: budget committee conclusions, KrokFin: our October 21 post, LIGA.net: IMF expectations.

Practical Takeaway

• The exchange rate is setting records gradually rather than in a jump: it reflects shrinking exports and will not go away quickly, so spreading savings across currencies remains basic practice.
• When comparing hryvnia OVDP and deposit rates, look at the real yield, after inflation and allowing for the hryvnia's fall.
• News of a budget shortfall and exporters' losses is the background against which external financing matters more; the EU's decision on 2027 remains the key event for the exchange rate and interest rates.