Ukraine Finance on October 24: NBU Searches, the 2027 Funding Gap and Weaker GDP Forecasts

This digest covers October 21 to October 24, 2026. The thread running through the week is financing: a week before its rate decision, the National Bank came under pressure from both the exchange rate and anti-corruption searches, while the government, the IMF and the EU worked out how much money is missing for 2027 and economic forecasts got worse.

Anti-Corruption Searches at the NBU and a New Exchange-Rate Record Before the Rate Decision

On October 21, the National Anti-Corruption Bureau (NABU) and the Specialized Anti-Corruption Prosecutor's Office (SAP) searched the NBU's premises and the home of one of its employees; no one was detained. The searches are linked to investigations involving state-owned Sense Bank. The bank's former supervisory board chair has said that Vasyl Veselyi, who according to sources effectively oversaw appointments to the bank's leadership, was appointed on the advice of NBU Governor Andriy Pyshnyi. Pyshnyi said he gave no such recommendation, and the NBU confirmed the searches and said it continues to work as normal.

At the same time, the exchange rate set a new record. The official rate for October 26 is UAH 45.2021 per dollar, 15 kopecks weaker on the day; the previous high of UAH 45.0802 was set on October 14. On the interbank market on October 23 the dollar traded at UAH 45.38–45.42, and since the start of the year the hryvnia has lost 6.7% against the dollar, compared with 0.8% in all of 2025. In the week of October 12–16, the NBU sold about $1.25 billion on the interbank market.

Why it matters: trust in the central bank is part of what anchors the currency and inflation expectations, and a case touching its leadership has surfaced a week before the policy-rate decision. No one has been named a suspect, so it is too early to draw conclusions. We explained how to read an exchange-rate record under managed flexibility in our October 21 post.

Sources: Ekonomichna Pravda: NABU searches at the NBU, Interfax-Ukraine: the rate for October 26, Ekonomichna Pravda: NBU FX sales.

The IMF Puts Unfunded Needs for 2027–28 at $50–55 Billion, and the EU Is Ready to Cover Two-Thirds

In an interview with Interfax-Ukraine published on October 23, Vladyslav Rashkovan, Ukraine's alternate executive director at the IMF, gave the Fund's estimate: unfunded external budget needs of $30–35 billion in 2027 and about $20 billion in 2028. Among the options, he named ERA-2 — a new loan backed by future proceeds from frozen Russian assets — and raising the limit of the existing EU loan; the draft EU budget for 2028–2034 includes €100 billion for Ukraine. Finance Minister Serhiy Marchenko expects the EU to cover two-thirds of the external needs, about $17.5 billion, leaving roughly $15 billion to find from other partners.

The same day, European Council President António Costa said the EU expects to cover about two-thirds of the €70 billion in additional financing Ukraine has requested for 2027, or about €46.7 billion. Leaders lean toward a new loan funded by joint EU borrowing; Hungary, Slovakia, Czechia and Bulgaria will not take part but will not block it. This money would come on top of the €45 billion the EU still has to disburse from the €90 billion loan.

The mechanism for investors: the less money comes from abroad, the more the state borrows at home. That keeps rates on hryvnia government bonds (OVDP) and deposits high, but crowds out lending to businesses and adds pressure on reserves and the hryvnia.

Sources: Interfax-Ukraine: Rashkovan interview, Interfax-Ukraine: Marchenko on the EU share, Interfax-Ukraine: Costa on the €70 billion.

KSE Cuts Its Forecast: GDP to Shrink in 2026 and 2027

On October 22, the KSE Institute cut its forecast for real GDP growth in 2026 from +1.9% to −0.3%, and for 2027 from +2.1% to −0.6%. The budget financing gap for 2026–2029 rose by $32.1 billion to $99.5 billion, tax revenue is expected to be $18.4 billion lower, and real exports in 2026 are seen 7.4% down. KSE expects inflation to stay above 13% through the third quarter of 2027, so further monetary tightening is warranted and easing is pushed back to late 2027.

Fresh sector data show where the pessimism comes from. According to Worldsteel, Ukraine produced 131,000 tonnes of steel in September, against 611,000 tonnes a year earlier — 4.7 times less. Ukrzaliznytsia's rail freight fell 38% year on year in September to 8.5 million tonnes, and without the ports of Greater Odesa realistic grain exports are 2–2.5 million tonnes a month. Lower exports mean less foreign currency coming into the country, so the NBU has to sell more from its reserves.

Sources: KSE, Interfax-Ukraine: steel output, Interfax-Ukraine: Ukrzaliznytsia freight.

The Budget Committee Clears the 2027 Draft for a First Reading

On October 21, the Verkhovna Rada's budget committee reviewed 5,236 amendments to the draft 2027 state budget and adopted 90 budget conclusions — recommendations to the government before the second reading. They include doubling state guarantees for defence companies to UAH 60 billion, returning 4% of personal income tax to local budgets (costing the state budget UAH 18.2 billion), and allowing lower starting prices in large privatisation auctions to sell assets such as the Odesa Port Plant and Sumykhimprom. Committee chair Roksolana Pidlasa expects the first reading "around October 28."

Under the government's draft, revenue is over UAH 5.6 trillion, spending over UAH 7.2 trillion and the deficit over UAH 1.6 trillion, or about 15% of GDP, while public debt may exceed UAH 12.3 trillion by the end of 2027. The size of the deficit determines how many OVDP the Ministry of Finance will offer the market.

Sources: Interfax-Ukraine: budget committee conclusions, Suspilne: draft budget figures.

Rothschild Hired to Sell the State's Stakes in Ukrgasbank and Sense Bank

On October 23, the Ministry of Finance, Ukrgasbank and Sense Bank signed agreements with N.M. Rothschild & Sons, working in a consortium with Ukraine's FinPoint, to advise on selling the state's stakes in the two banks. The adviser will receive a fixed fee and up to 3% of the proceeds paid into the budget. As of July 1, Ukrgasbank was the country's seventh-largest bank by assets and Sense Bank the ninth. Hiring an adviser has repeatedly been one of Ukraine's commitments to the IMF; the latest deadline was the end of July 2026.

For the market, this is the first practical step toward reducing the state's share of the banking sector and meeting another point of the IMF programme. The sales themselves will take months and will depend on investor appetite in wartime.

Sources: Interfax-Ukraine: bank sale adviser.

What to Watch Next

• Around October 28: first reading of the 2027 draft budget in the Rada.
• October 29: NBU policy-rate decision (currently 16%) and updated macro forecast.
• November 26–27, or December 17–18: EU summits that may decide on financing for Ukraine in 2027.

Sources: Interfax-Ukraine: budget committee conclusions, KrokFin: our October 21 post, Interfax-Ukraine: Costa on the €70 billion.

Practical Takeaway

• For hryvnia savings, real yield is what counts: if inflation stays above 13%, as KSE expects, part of today's high OVDP and deposit rates will go to covering it.
• The EU's decision on 2027 is a key factor for the exchange rate and domestic rates; until it is made, uncertainty will stay high.
• News of searches and exchange-rate records is a reason to review how your savings are structured and diversified across currencies, not to act on impulse.