NBU Holds Rate at 15%: What It Means for OVDPs and Savings

In late March 2026, the National Bank of Ukraine kept its benchmark rate unchanged at 15% per annum. The next monetary policy meeting is scheduled for April 30, 2026. At first glance this looks like a routine technical decision. But behind it are concrete practical implications for anyone holding hryvnia savings, bank deposits, or considering a purchase of OVDPs.

What the Benchmark Rate Is and What It Affects

The benchmark rate is the interest rate at which the NBU lends to commercial banks. It sets the "floor" for the entire borrowing market in Ukraine: deposit rates, OVDP yields, and loan costs are all directly or indirectly anchored to it.

When the NBU raises the rate, borrowing becomes more expensive but deposits and bonds become more attractive. When it cuts, credit gets cheaper but the return on risk-free hryvnia instruments falls.

Why the NBU Paused the Cutting Cycle

Earlier in 2026, the NBU had already cut the rate by 50 basis points — a signal that it was moving toward easier monetary conditions as the situation stabilised. But in March, a pause proved justified for several converging reasons.

Inflation is re-accelerating. According to the NBU, inflation in February 2026 rose to 7.6% year over year (from 7.4% in January). The acceleration is driven primarily by energy: fuel inflation at +8% year over year and rising gas tariffs. This is the pass-through from the global oil shock arriving via import prices and transport costs.

The NBU and the IMF disagree on the hryvnia exchange rate. The IMF, under its agreed EFF programme, is pushing for a gradual hryvnia weakening — arguing that the de-facto fixed exchange rate is building up imbalances and reducing export competitiveness. The NBU is resisting: a sharp weakening would accelerate imported inflation and erode trust in hryvnia-denominated savings. Until this tension is resolved, the NBU prefers not to cut rates, because lower rates would put additional downward pressure on the hryvnia.

The external environment remains volatile. The Strait of Hormuz is closed, oil is above $110, and US Treasury yields are rising. Cutting rates without a clear signal that inflation is stabilising would mean taking on unnecessary risk in this environment.

The Current OVDP Market

Today, yields on 1-year OVDPs stand at approximately 25.5% per annum. This is one of the highest yields for any sovereign debt instrument in the region.

That high yield reflects two things simultaneously:

1. Risk compensation — an OVDP investor takes on budget, exchange rate, and geopolitical risk
2. A real alternative — with inflation at 7.6%, a nominal yield of 25.5% delivers a real (inflation-adjusted) return of roughly 17%

For comparison: the US 10-year Treasury yield is currently around 4.35%. The difference explains why OVDPs attract those who consciously accept the risk and understand its nature.

What This Means for Ordinary Savers

If You Hold a Hryvnia Bank Deposit

Bank deposit rates in Ukraine are typically below the NBU benchmark and below OVDP yields. The typical range right now is 14–18% annually depending on the bank and term. As long as the NBU holds its rate, banks have no reason to cut deposit rates aggressively — a stabilising factor for those already holding deposits.

If You Are Considering OVDPs

OVDPs yielding 25.5% are attractive, but it is important to understand that this yield is not a free lunch. It embeds:

• The risk of hryvnia depreciation (if the NBU eventually concedes to the IMF)
• The risk that external financing is delayed and the state budget comes under stress
• The understanding that if rates fall in the future, OVDP secondary prices will rise (beneficial if you sell before maturity, neutral if you hold to the end)

For those willing to hold to maturity and consciously accept these risks, this is a rational choice in the current environment. For those looking to speculate on rate cuts, the situation is less clear: the timing of when the NBU will resume easing is genuinely uncertain.

International Reserves and the Hryvnia

As of March 1, 2026, the NBU's international reserves stood at $54.8 billion — the highest level of the wartime period. The official exchange rate is approximately UAH 43.77 per dollar.

Reserves are the buffer between external pressure and hryvnia stability. The larger the reserves, the longer the NBU can hold the exchange rate in a managed range even under external shocks. The current level gives the regulator some room to manoeuvre, though pressure on the hryvnia persists.

Practical Takeaway

The NBU's decision to hold the rate at 15% is not inaction. It is a deliberate choice between real, competing risks. The rate was not cut because inflation is re-accelerating, the hryvnia is under pressure, and the external environment is unpredictable.

For savers in Ukraine, this means:

• Hryvnia deposits and OVDPs remain well-compensated relative to inflation
• The 25.5% OVDP yield is real, but it carries genuine risks that need to be consciously accepted
• The next date to watch is April 30 — the NBU's monetary policy meeting

The key question: will the NBU resume its cutting cycle, or pause again? The answer depends on the March and April inflation data and on how the negotiations with the IMF over exchange-rate flexibility develop.