NBU Holds Rate at 15%: GDP Forecast Cut to 1.3%, Inflation Raised to 9.4%
On April 30, 2026, the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) published its monetary policy decision: the key rate remains at 15%. At the same time, the NBU revised its macroeconomic forecast — and the revision was significantly negative.
| Metric | Previous Forecast | New Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| GDP growth 2026 | +1.8% | +1.3% |
| Inflation 2026 (year-end) | 7.5% | 9.4% |
| Inflation 2027 | — | 6.5% |
| Return to 5% target | — | 2028 |
NBU Governor Andriy Pyshnyi indicated that the 15% rate is likely to remain at least through Q2 2027.
What the NBU Key Rate Does
The NBU key rate is the interest rate at which the National Bank lends to or borrows from commercial banks. It serves as the benchmark for the entire financial system: deposit rates, lending rates, and domestic government bond (OVDP) yields all reference it.
- When the NBU raises the rate — saving becomes more rewarding (deposit rates rise) and borrowing becomes more expensive, which slows spending and inflation.
- When it cuts the rate — the opposite effect.
The current 15% is a restrictive level — significantly above the pre-war norm of ~5–6%, set deliberately to contain wartime inflationary pressure.
Why the Forecast Was Revised Downward
The NBU cited three main drivers:
1. Damage to the energy system. Sustained strikes on energy infrastructure cause production disruptions, raise operating costs for businesses, and depress economic confidence. This directly weighs on GDP.
2. Weaker-than-expected Q1 2026 activity. The year started softer than the NBU's earlier assumptions.
3. The global fuel shock. Oil above $100 due to the Iran conflict and Strait of Hormuz blockade raised Ukraine's energy import costs. Ukraine is a net importer of petroleum products, so global oil prices feed directly into domestic prices and the government budget.
The NBU also widened its current account deficit forecast by $2.5 billion to $39.7 billion, reflecting higher energy import costs.
What the Real Return on OVDP Looks Like Now
OVDP (domestic government bonds) are hryvnia-denominated government securities. They are the most widely used savings instrument for those holding funds in Ukrainian currency.
Typical hryvnia OVDP yields in 2026 range from 14–16% depending on maturity. With the NBU's revised inflation forecast of 9.4%:
| Instrument | Nominal Rate | Inflation | Real Return |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6-month OVDP | ~15.5% | ~9.4% | ~+6.1% |
| Hryvnia deposit | ~12–13% | ~9.4% | ~+2.6–3.6% |
| Cash hryvnia | 0% | ~9.4% | −9.4% |
OVDP still offers a meaningful positive real return — but that return is lower than it appeared last quarter, when the inflation forecast was 7.5%.
One important caveat: 9.4% is the year-end 2026 forecast. During Q1–Q2, inflation may temporarily run higher (10–11%), which means real returns could dip. The NBU expects gradual disinflation through the second half.
Why the NBU Is Not Cutting
The apparent tension: a slowing economy usually calls for rate cuts to stimulate growth. So why hold at 15%?
In wartime conditions, the NBU has a different set of priorities:
- Maintain OVDP demand. The government finances a significant share of wartime expenditures through domestic bond issuance. Cutting rates risks reducing domestic appetite for government paper.
- Hryvnia stability. A high rate supports the attractiveness of hryvnia assets and dampens depreciation pressure.
- Anchor inflation expectations. With inflation at 9.4%, cutting rates would signal a retreat from the inflation-fighting mandate.
The NBU is choosing between weak growth with stable prices and stimulating activity at the risk of a new inflation wave. In wartime, the first option looks more durable.
Context: Ukraine Versus the World
While the NBU holds at 15%, the U.S. Federal Reserve holds at 3.5–3.75% and the National Bank of Poland holds at 5.25%. The spread reflects Ukraine's wartime risk premium: a higher rate compensates for elevated uncertainty and supports demand for hryvnia-denominated assets.
Notably, the IMF's April 2026 World Economic Outlook projected Ukraine's GDP growth at 2.0% — somewhat more optimistic than the NBU's own 1.3% figure. The divergence between international and domestic forecasts is itself a data point worth monitoring.
Practical Takeaway
For holders of hryvnia savings, today's NBU decision means: rates will stay attractive for at least another year. OVDP and deposits continue to offer positive real returns even under the revised inflation forecast. For the broader economy, the picture is less encouraging: weaker growth at higher prices is the same challenge much of the world faces in 2026 — but in Ukraine it arrives against the backdrop of wartime disruption and damaged infrastructure.
Sources: Kyiv Post NBU forecast · Interfax NBU GDP 1.3% · MarketScreener NBU · UNN NBU · Prism News